Forecast analysis report of Sinopec in 2012

2012 first quarter of the oil and chemical industry economic operation analysis report released, ten days later than in previous years.

Figure has been out, mainly for the two quarter and the annual forecast of some different views, we want to be more cautious about the judgment of the market outlook." China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, director of the information and marketing department, Zhao Zhiping told the China industry news reporter.
After careful analysis, the Petrochemical Association believes that the first quarter of this year, the overall economic operation of the oil and chemical industry, a significant decline in growth. However, the uncertain and unstable factors in the economic operation are still a lot, the rising cost pressures, the significant decline in enterprise efficiency, import and export is difficult.

Overall judgment, a quarter of the petroleum and chemical industry, the economy has fallen bottoming will emerge in future stabilisation of the turning situation. In the second quarter of petroleum and chemical industry economic operation will consolidate the bottoming, began to pick up in the third quarter, fourth quarter of pick up the pace to accelerate throughout the year overall growth is relatively stable. Expected annual total output value of about 13.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 19%.

Significant slowdown in growth rate significantly slowed
National Bureau of statistics data show that as of the end of March, petroleum and chemical industry for 26 to 647 above scale enterprises, a quarter of the cumulative total output value of 2.77 trillion yuan, 13.7% over the same period the national total industrial output value, an increase of 16.1%, an increase over the previous year drop over the same period 18.2 percentage points. Oil and chemical industry added value increased by 8.7%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points over the same period last year, accounting for the proportion of the national industrial added value of 15.1%.

In the first quarter, the oil and chemical industry energy growth overall stability, the total amount of major chemical growth slowed. From 1 to March, the national total production of oil and gas equivalent of 8042 tons, an increase of 1.7%, an increase of 1 to February was flat. Major chemical total of about 1.09 tons, an increase of 9.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year, down 4.2 percentage points from 1 to February.

The report also shows that in the first quarter, the oil and chemical industry, the significant decline in benefits.
Larger profits decline. According to statistics, 1 ~ 2 months, whole industry enterprises above the scale of total profit 987.95 billion yuan, 22.0% year-on-year drop, 2010 declined for the first time, accounting for 16.3% over the same period the size of the country's total industrial profits; main business income of 1.67 trillion yuan, growth of 15.0 percent, increase compared to last year over the same period to drop 20 percentage points, 13.8% of the above scale industrial main income.

Costs continue to rise rapidly, the amount of loss making enterprises to expand. 1 ~ February, the cost of oil and chemical industry sales of 1.38 yuan, an increase of 19.6%, significantly higher than the income growth, continue to maintain a strong upward momentum. Loss of the entire industry 5443 enterprises, an increase of 26.8%, a loss of 20.43%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points. Loss of business losses of 323.98 yuan, an increase of 192.7%. From 1 to February, the refining industry accumulated a total loss of 92.06 yuan, the same period last year profit of 142.77 yuan.

Export volatility increased
Known as a barometer of foreign trade and the vane of the trade fair this year, a significant decline in turnover, petrochemical and related products turnover also declined. According to reports, Minmetals chemical products on the fair turnover of $44, down 7.67% over the previous fair. According to industry analysts, the recent weakness in the overseas market trend will continue, weak growth in the short term is difficult to fundamentally change the situation in the short term, exports year on year growth rate or will remain at a low level.

Market reaction also coincided with the decision of the petrochemical association. In the first quarter of this year, foreign trade in the petrochemical industry volatility, a significant decline in March.

1 ~ 3 months, oil and chemical industry import and export trade volume 1592.04 billion, an increase of 16.3%, increase than 1 ~ 2 months down 4 percentage points, higher than over the same period the national average increase of 9 percentage points, 18.5% of the country's total import and export trade. Among them, imports 1191.53 billion, an increase of 19.5%, accounting for 27.8% of the country's total imports; exports 400.51 billion U. s.dollars, an increase of 7.8%, accounting for 9.3% of the total exports of the country. The first 3 months, the cumulative deficit of 791.02 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 26.4%. Statistics show that in March, the total import and export volume increased by 9.7%, 31.5 percentage points lower than in February, of which, exports fell by 1.5%, the first drop since the end of 2009.

For the reasons for the decline in exports, Petrochemical Association believes that, in addition to the international trade environment is more severe, the domestic policy adjustment is one of the main factors.

Operation pressure appearance
The report also clearly pointed out that the current petrochemical industry is still facing several major pressure.
First, the slowdown in market demand, low prices hovering. First quarter, the growth rate of domestic energy consumption significantly slowed compared with the previous year, consumption growth in major chemical products also continued to fall. Data show that, although the increase in oil maintained at 5.4%, but the actual consumption is also much lower. Such as the apparent volume of refined oil apparent increase of nearly 6% (less than the same period 1/2), but very much into the inventory, according to statistics, by the end of 3, the domestic refined oil inventories increased by 11.4%. In the first quarter, China's GDP growth of fifth, 8.1% consecutive quarters of decline. Export growth of only 7.6%, a record low, which indicates that the domestic and international demand for the two markets are not active. Affected by this, the major chemical prices continued to decline. In the first quarter, the total price of the chemical industry rose 2.2% year on year, remove the inflation factor, the price is actually down.

Two is the high cost, efficiency decline. Statistics show that from 1 to February, the cost of oil and chemical industry sales rose 19.6%, higher than the main revenue growth of 4.6 percentage points. Among them, the chemical industry and oil processing industry sales costs were 19.7%, respectively, 3.3 and 8.1 percentage points higher than their main income growth. This year, the company's labor, transportation, energy and other costs rose.