Solve the chemical industry overcapacity key structural adjustment

Since the business agency August 27 hearing, the outbreak of the global financial crisis, China's chemical industry serious excess capacity problems exposed. Overcapacity in the final analysis is a structural problem, to solve the structural contradiction is the eternal theme of the development of the industry, but also to solve the fundamental way of excess capacity.

Petrochemical industry is a strong cyclical industry, due to its technology intensive and capital intensive, high cost of exiting features, is bound to cause cyclical fluctuations in the petrochemical market. After 2002, the economic recovery in developed countries, as well as China, India, Russia and other countries, driven by rapid economic growth, the world's chemical industry once again entered a period of growth cycle. From 2004 to 2007, the world's chemical industry in boom cycle peak prices, is also China's chemical industry high speed development period, its development speed is rare in the history of the chemical industry, annual sales revenue growth of 30% ~ 35% profit growth 25%. Huge market space and better profitability, stimulate investment in the industry, so that the rapid expansion of domestic chemical plant production capacity, resulting in excess production capacity. And the outbreak of the financial crisis, but also to highlight the problem of excess capacity.

Excess performance: structural excess and stage excess
The capacity of China's calcium carbide and coke, methanol, dimethyl ether, nitrogenous fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, "two bases", acetic acid, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and other industry problem of excess of the more prominent, the operating rate dropped significantly. China Petroleum and chemical industry association data show that in June, soda ash, caustic soda, calcium carbide, PVC, methanol, fertilizer industry device operating rate of 83%, 83.4%, 78.4%, 51.1%, 44% and 56%, respectively. 2009, is expected to urea production capacity will reach 6300 tons or so, the output of about 5300 tons, with a total demand of about 4500 tons, is the history of the most serious excess capacity of urea a year. In addition, the coke production capacity of more than 30%, more than two of the excess capacity of 70% ether idle.

Excess capacity in excess of the structural surplus and the stage of excess. Structural surplus and performance in several ways: one is the irrational structure of raw materials, such as oil gas making to change the structure of raw materials, natural gas gas making when conditions are ripe can also be appropriate to consider change for coal gasification, feedstock transport distance farther products to adjust the structure of raw materials, reduce the transportation cost of raw materials; the second is the product structure is not reasonable, popular and dependable, high value-added products; the third is backward technology, lack of innovation, enterprise competitiveness is weak; four is irrational structure of enterprise and unit scale is too small, will inevitably lead to high consumption and low energy efficiency. Stage of excess mainly is: a good time in the development of the world economy, such as from 2003 to 2007, a lot of products appeared tight supply, so the a number of projects, but as a result of the financial crisis, the project becomes redundant construction, lead to overcapacity in the present stage. Although the economy is recovering, but need to a slow process, not all of a sudden return to the 2007 level, then now excess capacity is very difficult.

In addition, it should be placed in the world to look at the problem of excess capacity. For example, this year the cost of methanol at home and abroad for half a year is a huge difference, resulting in a large influx of foreign low-cost methanol, especially to import large quantities of Middle East methanol to oil gas as raw materials, a serious impact on the domestic market. According to incomplete statistics, from 1 to June, China's total imports of methanol reached 350 tons, accounting for about 40% of the total supply. Affected by the impact of imports of methanol, methanol port price is lower than inland. This shows that the global chemical market has entered an era of relative surplus. Economic globalization to the world market closely together, immune to the development train of thought has come to an end.

Analysis of the reasons: the blind development of enterprises and local government support
Because of the profit of capital, the enterprise has a great enthusiasm for the project in previous years. Stand in the position of the enterprise, the enterprise should be bigger and stronger, must have the scale, there is the scale of the right to say. But only to expand production capacity to drive the development of enterprises, the financial crisis, it will have serious consequences. Carbide PVC, for example, in the middle period of the 1990s last century, China's calcium carbide process in the production of PVC only 130 million tons into 2000 scale after the exceptionally rapid expansion, and in 2001 reached 160 million tons, in 2006 more than 810 million tons, in 2008 more than 10.5 million tons. This year, despite the international crude oil prices have been high, increasing the cost of production of ethylene process PVC, but the PVC market is still low. Investigate its root, excess capacity is the root cause.

In addition, local governments in order to GDP growth, encourage enterprises to expand production capacity. For example, in the coal resource area, if you want to get coal resources, it must be on the local coal chemical projects, and on the coal chemical project must first on the methanol. At present, traditional coal chemical products is serious and superfluous, to oil replacement for the goal of modern coal chemical industry such as coal to olefins has just started, the technology was not mature, is still in the demonstration phase, methanol new fields of application have not yet opened, two aspects of the role of the lead to serious excess methanol products. For example, in recent years, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia and other places on the coal chemical industry because of heat, the new methanol project about 2000 tons, significantly more than the market capacity. Dimethyl ether is also the case, 2002 the dimethyl ether with a total capacity of less than 3 million tons, but from the beginning of 2006, dimethyl ether production capacity to 133% average annual rate of growth, at present domestic production over 500 million tons, and 2008 dimethyl ether production only 140 million tons or so, the operating rate of less than 30% and there are about 500 million tons of the device are under construction.

But this grim situation has not caused enough vigilance of local governments and relevant departments. It is understood that in the already